1. St. Louis (1-15) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
It has to be Bradford. Quarterback is the most important position in sports and the Rams are bad—almost Detroit Lions bad. Bradford has more upside than any college QB since Ryan Leaf…no wait…Peyton Manning. The arm injuries scare the hell out of me though. Boom or Bust on this pick.
2. Detroit (2-14) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Speaking of the Lions….The expectations of Suh will be enormous. And unless he gets to play the Texas Longhorns every week he will never live up to them. That’s not to say he won’t excel for the Lions. (Think Mario Williams from a few years ago.) Great player, but they expect 20 sacks a year. Suh is a Pro Bowl player with ability to burn, but it’s too difficult for one player to dominate, especially on the defensive line. But it’s still a great pick, and Detroit fans hope it’s a big piece to a very disorganized puzzle.
3. Tampa Bay (3-13) Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee
The NFL does not traditionally value the safety position this highly, but the Bucs will make an exception. Berry offers leadership and versatility combined with high character and charisma. He can play cornerback and both safety spots, not to mention contribute on special teams and maybe even return a kick or two. Coach Monte still has a relationship with Buccaneers’ coach Raheem Morris and has been touting Berry as a potential #1 overall. And we all know the value of the Kiffin family word. That cheap shot aside, Monte knows talent, and Berry is one of a kind.
4. Washington (4-12) Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
The Jason Campbell experiment is over. New Head Coach Mike Shanahan doesn’t have the time to de-program Campbell’s brain. It’s not Campbell’s fault—he’s been through so many coaching changes Mike Hamilton is calling for advice. Clausen’s been coached by a well respected NFL guy in a program that has as much pressure as any NFL job. He’s the most pro-ready QB in the draft.
5. Kansas City (4-12) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Kansans City is in an enviable position because offensive tackle is such high value draft pick and they can choose their favorite. Other possibilities are Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma; Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers; and Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. The Chiefs finally realize the game is won by the big guys up front.
6. Seattle (5-11) Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Pete Carroll doesn’t care that the Seahawks don’t have a playmaker at wide receiver. There isn’t a deep threat worthy of the sixth pick, and that’s ok. Carroll is patient and smart, and he knows the game is won up front. USC put a lot of offensive and defensive linemen in the NFL—they weren’t all Heisman Trophy winners. The Seahawks also own the 14th pick, so a trade up or down isn’t out of the question.
7. Cleveland (5-11) Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
The longest QB competition in history ended in two losers. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are both gone, and if the Browns are going to attract a top notch passer, the guy is going to need a ton of help. Paired with Joe Thomas, Davis completes a nice pair of bookend tackles. The trade of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards combined with the lack of quarterback depth is troubling. Perhaps they are clearing salary cap room for Lebron James? Team President Mike Holmgren has work to do.
8. Oakland (5-11) Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Al Davis rewards great workout numbers without regard to upside, need or skill. If Taylor Mays wasn’t so bad in coverage, he’d be a slam dunk here. Campbell fits right in though. He has ridiculous workout numbers and imposing size, but once again Davis is putting too much stock in the eye test. Campbell is a good (but not great) talent. It’s not wise to pick the fourth best player at a position with the eighth overall pick, but the Raiders are full of surprises.
9. Buffalo (6-10) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
The Bills are switching to a 3-4 defense, and a solid nose tackle is the key to the transition. Having McCoy fall this far would be the answer to many frozen prayers. The Bills have needs all over, and a major league defensive tackle to build around is a good start. There’s a good possibility they trade down to acquire picks.
Jac10. ksonville (7-9) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
It’s way too high for Tebow to go, but the Jaguars are desperate—not for a signal caller, but for ticket sales. The NFL is a business and Jacksonville is in real danger of folding (or moving to Los Angles.) Their home games aren’t selling out and they put curtains over portions of the upper level seating to hide the empty seats. It’s yet to be seen if Tebow is a pro quarterback, but the hometown boy will sell tickets.
11. Denver (7-9) Dez Bryant, WR, OK State
The way the Broncos handled the Brandon Marshall situation last year was impressive—especially for a young head coach. With trade rumors swirling around Marshall this year, the Broncos will need another playmaker at WR. Bryant brings the talent and the baggage but fortunately the Broncos they have experience managing both.
12. Miami (7-9) Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
The Dolphins will get a steal with the Alabama linebacker. McClain fills a need and is the best player available at the position. A natural inside linebacker, McClain went sideline to sideline wreaking havoc in the SEC. His combine numbers were slightly disappointing, but this guy’s a player.
13. San Francisco (8-8) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Bulaga’s draft stock suffered a little as the Iowa tackle missed three games with a thyroid condition last season. Mike Singletary is on the verge of having the 49ers back in the playoffs, and keeping Alex Smith upright can only help. A tough-minded and tenacious blocker, Bulaga fits the Singletary mold.
14. Seattle - from Denver (8-8) Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
A DUI late last season devastated Dunlap’s draft status. Freakish athleticism at 6’ 6" and 290 pounds, Dunlap should have been the darling of the draft. Pete Carroll is a master motivator and if he can light a fire under the chronic under-achieving Dunlap, this is a bargain pick.
15. New York Giants (8-8) Brian Price, DT, UCLA
Vol fans know how much impact Price can have against SEC competition. A talented pass rusher from the inside, Price can also be a dominant run-stuffer. The one knock on Price is that he takes plays off. If Tom Coughlin can get this guy’s motor running in high gear, the Giants get great value on this pick.
16. Tennessee (8-8) Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Pierre-Paul fills a need and provides instant pass rush for the Titans. With Javon Kearse on the way out and Kyle Vanden Bosch traded to Detroit, defensive end is a priority in Nashville. A good pass rusher can help cover up holes in a leaky secondary, too.
17. San Francisco - from Carolina (8-8) Earl Thomas, DB, Texas
Some experts have the Texas defensive back rated as highly as Eric Berry. With eight interceptions last year, the redshirt sophomore is able to play multiple positions in the secondary. A great talent, the 49ers defense gets a lot stronger.
18. Pittsburgh (9-7) Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
The best interior lineman in the draft, Iupati can also play tackle in a pinch. At 330 pounds, Iupati can be a devastating run blocker and shows better than average athletic ability for his size. While still a little raw for a tackle, Iupati can be plugged-in at guard and have success immediately.
19. Atlanta (9-7) Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden’s combine numbers were almost disastrous. His 4.57 40-yard dash and 31-inch vertical leap didn’t impress anybody. Haden benefits from a relative lack of depth at the position and above average in-game performances in the SEC. The Falcons need help at corner and Haden is the best pure cover corner available. Sometimes the draft is easy.
20. Houston (9-7) C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Depth at running back was already a concern before Steve Slaton had spinal surgery in the off season. Spiller is a versatile back with homerun potential on every touch—a great complimentary player with the ability to carry the load if needed.
21. Cincinnati (10-6) Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bengals high-powered offense typically doesn’t feature a tight end, but they will make an exception for Gresham. After 950 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 2008, Gresham missed 2009 with a knee injury. Assuming he passes the physical, this is a difference-maker in the passing game.
22. New England (10-6) Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
Kindle needs to add a few pounds to play the rush specialist in a 3-4 defense, but his versatility seals the deal for the Patriots. At 250 pounds, Kindle can play in space or rush the passer. Similar to Brian Orakpo, Kindle dominated games at times in the Big 12.
23. Green Bay (11-5) Jahved Best, RB, California
I know Aaron Rodgers was sacked more than any other quarterback in the league, but with the resigning of Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, the Pack aren’t forced to draft a tackle this late in the first round. Adding the explosive Best to what is already one of the top offenses in the league makes the Packers an early favorite in the NFC.
24. Philadelphia (11-5) Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
With the future of Brian Westbrook in question, the Eagles will take a hard look at running back. But with value available in later rounds, they opt for the Tennessee lineman. Williams has shot up draft boards thanks to a strong senior season and good workouts. Once though to be a third or fourth round pick at best, the 330-pound tackle will have plenty to celebrate on draft day.
25. Baltimore (9-7) Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
Timed as low as 4.38 in the 40-yard dash, Robinson is a versatile athlete who will help immediately in the secondary. Robinson has a ton of experience—he was a contributor, if not a starter, all four years in Tallahassee. A backup for aging tight end Todd Heap is tempting, but there is value in later rounds.
26. Arizona (10-6) Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
At the Senior Bowl, Graham consistently showed he belonged with the most talented players in the country. A big, strong linebacker, Graham finished the 2008 season with 20 tackles for loss. He may be overlooked because of the recent program struggles in Ann Arbor. The Cardinals defense was exposed by Green Bay and New Orleans late last year. He’s a solid pick that should help the Cardinals settle down.
27. Dallas (11-5) Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
The Cowboys are pretty good. Their most pressing need is at kicker. And unless you’re Al Davis, you wait to draft one. Virtually any draft pick the Cowboys make will be for depth so they will go with the best playmaker left in the board. The Notre Dame wideout had impressive workouts and will see time as a backup and in the return game.
28. San Diego (13-3) Jonathan Dwyer,RB, Georgia Tech
Letting go of L.T. was not a popular move in San Diego. While Darren Sproles is a great playmaker, the Chargers need somebody who can carry the load. Dwyer is a smart back, but the system he ran in college didn’t showcase his pass protection—a must in the NFL. Assuming he can pick up blitzes, Dwyer has the chance to be a solid back who plays right away.
29. New York Jets (9-7) Sean Witherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Always defensive-minded, Rex Ryan and the Jets look for value in this late pick. The off-season acquisition of Antonio Cromartie makes a strong secondary even stronger. Adding the ultra-athletic pass rusher will make the Darrelle Revis/Cromartie duo even better. Depth at running back is also a possibility, but the Jets know how they make their money. D-FENSE!!
30. Minnesota (12-4) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Vikings, like the Cowboys, don’t need much immediate help. A couple of injuries in the secondary make it the most likely place to add depth. Wilson has been climbing the draft boards since the combine. A smart corner back with plenty of speed, Wilson could see action in the nickel package immediately.
31. Indianapolis (14-2) Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama
I would bet that the Peyton Manning could make just about anybody on offense look good, so the Colts beef up on the other side of the ball. Cody won’t provide much pass rush but he is a prototype nose guard who will occupy two blockers and is impossible to run on. Cody’s weight may be an issue.
32. New Orleans (13-3) Taylor Mays, S, USC
The NFL network almost woke Al Davis up when they announced that they clocked Mays at 4.24 in the 40-yard dash—at 234 pounds. The official time was adjusted to a more realistic 4.43, but now rumors are rampant that the timing device was flawed. The fact is that Mays is a physical specimen with questionable football ability. His measurables are immeasurable and learning under Darren Sharper can only help.
Tennessee Volunteers in the draft
Monterio Hardestey: RB
A huge senior season combined with fantastic numbers at the combine should solidly land Mo in the second round. The injury factor remains a concern, but as of right now he’s healthy and ready to run.
Chris Scott: OT
With more strength than quickness to his game, Scott may be more suited to play guard at the next level. Scott was easily the best offensive lineman on last year’s Volunteer squad, but that’s not saying much. He’ll be a fifth round pick at best.
Jonathan Crompton: QB
A miracle turn around in the 2009 season, there is no question Crompton has all the tools to succeed in the NFL. The question has always been football intelligence. Some big ego general manager or head coach will be too tempted by the size and arm strength to pass on Jon. I’ll call it late fifth or sixth round.
Vladimir Richard: G
We always heard stories of how dominant Richard was in practice and it was just a matter of time before he took off and dominated the SEC. It never happened. A solid college guard, his injury history and lack of sustained production will push Vlad to the seventh round.
Jacques McClendon: G
Like Vlad Richard, McClendon has NFL size but maybe not the ability. A workout warrior, McClendon set the Tennessee record for the bench press at 645 pounds in 2008. That raw strength never translated to dominance on the field. He’s also a seventh rounder. Both McClendon and Richard could make and NFL roster, but it’ll be close.
Dennis Rogan: DB
The former Fulton High School standout declared for the NFL draft as a junior and did not help himself at the combine or at UT’s Pro Day. Rogan’s 4.65 average 40-yard dash time at the combine is below average for a defensive back. To make matters worse, there are stories circulating that Rogan became upset at his performance at Tennessee’s Pro Day and left the workout without notifying anybody. The perceived lack of professionalism caused at least one scout to render Rogan undraftable. Rogan has good skills and great versatility. He probably won’t be drafted but may catch on as a free agent special teams player and reserve defensive back.